Earth System Science and Modeling

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CPO's Earth System Science and Modeling (ESSM) division supports a unique and highly flexible climate research enterprise to improve scientific understanding of climate variability and change. The ESSM Division comprises three programs: Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP), Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP), and Atmospheric Chemistry, Carbon Cycle, & Climate (AC4)

ESSM News

Global rainfall pattern could offer prediction skill three weeks out 19 January 2018

Global rainfall pattern could offer prediction skill three weeks out

A new study says that teleconnections with certain phases of a recurring tropical rainfall pattern could extend predictions up to 20-25 days in advance. The authors’ findings provide guidance on which tropical conditions might lead to improved forecasts beyond our current capability – and more time to prepare for extreme events.

Seismic sensors record hurricane intensity, study finds 8 January 2018

Seismic sensors record hurricane intensity, study finds

New line of information could help predict the storms’ future strength

A new study has found that seemingly trivial vibrations in the earth's surface can actually encode the power of hurricanes moving over ocean waters. The findings may make it possible to estimate the strength of past hurricanes, to reveal long term changes in the severity and frequency of these storms, and help scientists understand potential future changes.

What’s the criteria for identifying flash droughts? New study says rapid onset, not short duration 13 December 2017

What’s the criteria for identifying flash droughts? New study says rapid onset, not short duration

“Flash drought” has become a popular term in the media, but the debate of what a flash drought really is has caused confusion that affects scientists’ ability to detect their onset, monitor their development, and understand how they evolve.

New research unlocks the door for better predictability up to 7 months ahead 13 December 2017

New research unlocks the door for better predictability up to 7 months ahead

In many parts of North America, a fluctuating air-pressure pattern that enhances or blocks the storm-steering jet stream, called the Arctic Oscillation (AO), explains more variability in the weather than a primary influencer called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the AO’s prediction skill has been known to be limited, until now.

NOAA Research grants to tackle changing coastal flooding, marine resources and drought highlighted by Universities across the US 4 December 2017

NOAA Research grants to tackle changing coastal flooding, marine resources and drought highlighted by Universities across the US

Seven leading U.S. academic institutions recently released announcements about their new NOAA Research awards for cutting-edge projects to tackle coastal flooding, changing marine resources and drought. The releases highlight the importance of the federal funding, received from the NOAA Research Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program, for the universities and NOAA’s services advancement, as well as the potential significant societal and economic impacts of their new projects.

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Contact the ESSM Division Chief


Chief, Earth System Science and Modeling Division

P: 301-734-1185
E: jin.huang@noaa.gov

Management and Program Analyst
P: 301-427-1220
E: darlene.ward@noaa.gov
*Affiliates

Contact

Dr. Annarita Mariotti
MAPP Program Director
P: 301-734-1237
E: annarita.mariotti@noaa.gov

Dr. Daniel Barrie
MAPP Program Manager
P: 301-734-1256
E: daniel.barrie@noaa.gov

Alison Stevens*
MAPP Program Specialist
P: 301-734-1218
E: alison.stevens@noaa.gov

Emily Read*
MAPP Program Assistant
P: 301-734-1257
E: emily.read@noaa.gov

Contact

Dr. Daniel Barrie
MAPP Program Manager
P: 301-734-1256
E: daniel.barrie@noaa.gov

Alison Stevens*
MAPP Program Specialist
P: 301-734-1218
E: alison.stevens@noaa.gov

Contact

Dr. Sandy Lucas
CVP Program Manager
P: 301-734-1253
E: sandy.lucas@noaa.gov


Contact

Dr. Ken Mooney
Program Manager, Atmospheric Chemistry, Carbon Cycle, & Climate (AC4)
P: (301) 734-1242
F: (301) 713-0517
E: kenneth.mooney@noaa.gov

Dr. Monika Kopacz (UCAR)
Program manager, Atmospheric Chemistry, Carbon Cycle and Climate (AC4)
P: (301) 734-1208
E: monika.kopacz@noaa.gov

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CPO.webmaster@noaa.gov

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Americans’ health, security and economic wellbeing are tied to climate and weather. Every day, we see communities grappling with environmental challenges due to unusual or extreme events related to climate and weather. In 2011, the United States experienced a record high number (14) of climate- and weather-related disasters where overall costs reached or exceeded $1 billion. Combined, these events claimed 670 lives, caused more than 6,000 injuries, and cost $55 billion in damages. Businesses, policy leaders, resource managers and citizens are increasingly asking for information to help them address such challenges.