Climate Prediction Task Force Virtual Workshop

Bias Corrections in Subseasonal to Interannual Predictions

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Session 1
Session 2
Session 3
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Agenda

The main goals of this Virtual Workshop are to review current practices and challenges in bias correcting sub-seasonal to interannual predictions and to foster new strategies particularly for bias correction under a non-stationary climate and prediction systems. Submission of abstracts that address the following two themes are invited as part of this virtual workshop:

  1. Bias correction methods including bias correction as post processing or bias correction done as the forecast evolves. Calibration is included as a sub-set of bias correction
  2. Impact of bias correction on skill (or utility) of application models 

The virtual workshop spans three days

Tuesday September 30, 2014 (all times are Eastern Daylight Time)

Session Chair: T. Barnston
Rapporteur: D. Barrie

11:15 am – 11:40 am:  Welcome and Logistics; WebEx (B. Kirtman, W. Chong) 

11:40 am – 12:10 pm: Thoughts about bias correction in CFSv1 and CFSv2 (H.  van den Dool; 25 minutes presentation, 5 minutes questions) – Invited

12:10 pm – 12:40 pm: A brief survey of bias correction methods used in ensemble numerical prediction systems and issues in the horizon (M. Peña, 25 minutes presentation, 5 minutes questions) – Invited

12:40 pm – 12:55 pm: Break

12:55 pm – 1:00 pm: WebEx Reminder (W. Chong)

1:00 pm – 1:25 pm: Empirical Correction to Tropical Heating. Can we correct mid-latitude model biases? (D. Straus, 20 minutes presentation, 5 minutes questions)

1:25 pm – 1:50 pm: A New Distribution Mapping Technique for Climate Model Bias Correction (S. McGinnis, 20 minutes presentation, 5 minutes questions)

1:50 pm – 2:15 pm: Diagnosing MJO hindcast biases in NCAR CAM3 using nudging during the DYNAMO field campaign (A. Subramanian; 20 minutes presentation, 5 minutes questions)

2:15pm – 2:45 pm: Discussion (T. Barnston, Session Speakers)

 

Wednesday October 1, 2014 (all times are Eastern Daylight Time)

Session Chair: M. Newman
Rapporteur: J. Gottschalck

2:00pm – 2:05pm:  WebEx (W. Chong)

2:05pm – 2:30pm: Selecting appropriate bias correction schemes for seasonal-to-decadal prediction (P. Sansom, 20 minutes presentation, 5 minutes questions)

2:30pm – 3:00pm: Coupled Climate Model SST Biases in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans (P. Zuidema, 25 minutes presentation, 5 minutes questions) – Invited

3:00pm – 3:25pm: Bias correction and probabilistic skill in seasonal forecasts based on NMME (N. Krakauer, 20 minutes presentation, 5 minutes questions)

3:25pm – 3:40pm: Break

3:40pm – 3:45pm: WebEx (W. Chong)

3:45pm – 4:10 pm: The Impact of Bias Correction of Climate Data on Vegetation and Soil Carbon Dynamics (N. Gosselin, 20 minutes presentation, 5 minutes questions)

4:10 pm – 4:40 pm: Discussion (M. Newman, Session Speakers)

 

Thursday October 2, 2014 (all times are Eastern Daylight Time)

Session Chair: A. Kumar
Rapporteur: J. Tribbia

11:30am – 11:35am:  WebEx (W. Chong)

11:35 am – 12:05pm: SPECS-PREFACE workshop on initial shock, drift and systematic error (F. Doblas-Reyes; 25 minutes presentation, 5 minutes questions) - Invited 

12:05pm – 12:30pm: A posteriori adjustment of near-term climate predictions: Accounting for the drift dependence on the initial conditions (N. Fuckar, 20 minutes presentation, 5 minutes questions)

12:30pm – 12:55pm: Decadal Changes in Subseasonal Predictability, Forecast Bias, and Model Calibration (D. Collins; 20 minutes presentation, 5 minutes questions)

12:55pm – 1:10 pm: Break

1:10 pm – 1:15 pm: WebEx (W. Chong)

1:15pm – 1:40pm: Usefulness of ensemble forecasts from NCEP Climate Forecast System in sub-seasonal to intra-annual forecasting (S. Kumar, 20 minutes presentation, 5 minutes questions)

1:40pm – 2:10pm: Individual Model Post-Processing Bias Corrections in a Stationary Climate (T. Barnston, 25 minutes presentation, 5 minutes questions)

2:10pm – 2:40pm: Discussion and Wrap-up (B. Kirtman, A. Kumar, T. Barnston, M. Newman, Session Speakers)

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