Research projects

Over several fiscal years and through various grant competitions, the MAPP program has supported more than two dozen research projects to develop, evaluate, and apply the NMME seasonal prediction system in support of NOAA’s mission. Other Federal Agencies also provided support for NMME-based research as part of their programs, these include NASA, NSF, DOE and Office of Naval Research. The MAPP program, together with DOE and Navy partners, held a FY15 competitive research opportunity to further evaluate the NMME predictions and explore new applications. The 12 projects funded through this competition will thoroughly assess NMME predictions for phenomena important to decision-makers and seasonal forecast providers as well as explore potential new applications of the NMME for predictions. This funding complements internal investments towards NMME efforts at NOAA's labs and centers of excellence across the U.S.

NMME Research Presentations
Event/Date Title & Presenter(s)

NMME Teleconference
February 2, 2017

Why Are Strong El Niño Events Not “Too Big To Fail”?
Tao Zhang (CIRES-CU), Martin Hoerling (NOAA/ESRL), Klaus Wolter (CIRES-CU), Jon Eischeid (CIRES-CU), Linyin Cheng (CIRES-CU), Andrew Hoell (NOAA/ESRL), Judith Perlwitz (NOAA/ESRL), Xiao‐Wei Quan (CIRES-CU), Brant Liebmann (CIRES-CU)

NMME Teleconference
January 5, 2017

Verification of NMME Extreme Seasonal Temperatures
Dan Collins (NOAA/CPC)

2016 AGU Fall Meeting
December 12, 2016

Improving seasonal drought prediction in California by combining statistical and dynamical models
Amir AghaKouchak (University of California, Irvine)

NMME Teleconference
December 8, 2016

NMME Sea Ice Reforecasts: An Update
Kirstin Harnos (NOAA/CPC), Michelle L’Heureux (NOAA/CPC), Qin Zhang (NOAA/CPC)

NMME Teleconference
November 3, 2016

NMME prediction of the 2015-16 El Niño
Michelle L’Heureux (NOAA/CPC)

NMME Teleconference
September 9, 2016

Update on NAO prediction by NMME models
Huug van den Dool (NOAA/CPC)

Which Predictability Estimates are most Realistic?
Kathy Pegion (GMU/COLA), Tim Delsole (GMU/COLA), Emily Becker (NOAA/CPC), Teresa Cicerone (GMU/COLA)

NMME Teleconference
June 9, 2016

NMME Phase-II Data Discussion

NMME Teleconference
May 5, 2016

CESM Skill Evaluation and more
Li-Chuan Chen (NOAA/CPC), Huug van den Dool (NOAA/CPC)

Sea Ice Data of NMME Reforecast
Kirstin Harnos (NOAA/CPC), Qin Ginger Zhang (NOAA/CPC), Michelle L’Heureux (NOAA/CPC)

NMME special collection in preparation

An NMME Special Issue is currently being prepared for the international journal Climate Dynamics. This special issue is a collection of manuscripts documenting the use of the NMME system database for research ranging from predictability studies, to multi-model prediction evaluation and diagnostics, to emerging applications of climate predictability for subseasonal to seasonal predictions. It is expected that the special issue will include at least 20 papers, once finalized.

List of NMME publications, as compiled by NWS (last updated 2015)

NMME research projects funded by the MAPP program since FY11

“Evaluating Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and NAM Predictability in the NMME Phase-2 System” (2015); PI: Jason Furtado (Atmospheric and Environmental Research); co-PI: Dan Collins (NOAA CPC)

“Prediction of Atmospheric Rivers in NMME” (2015); PI: Hyemi Kim (Stony Brook University)

“Forecasting risk of seasonal temperature extremes with the North American Multi-Model Ensemble” (2015); PI: Nir Krakauer (City University of New York, City College)

“Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Predictability of Weather Statistics Using NMME” (2015); PI: Simon Mason (IRI, Columbia University)

“Identifying and Assessing Gaps in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Skill” (2015); PI: Kathy Pegion (COLA/George Mason University)

“Application of the NMME for the Intraseasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the Atlantic and North Pacific Basins” (2015); PI: Jae-Kyung Schemm (NOAA CPC)

“NMME Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts for the Continental United States and Europe: Diagnostic Evaluation and Development of Multi Model Applications” (2015); PI: Gabriele Villarini (University of Iowa)

“Towards Week-2 to Week-4 Excessive Heat Outlooks: Evaluation of the Forecast Skill of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble System” (2015); PI: Augustin Vintzileos (University of Maryland, ESSIC); co-PI: Jon Gottschalck (NOAA CPC)

“Assessing Phase 2 NMME (NMME-2) Forecasts for Improved Seasonal Predictions of Drought and Water Management” (2015); PI: Eric Wood (Princeton University)

Selected for funding by the Navy Office of Naval Research: “Evaluation of Intra-seasonal Variability of Indian Monsoon in NMME” (2015); PI: Jim Kinter (George Mason University, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies)

Selected for funding by the Navy Office of Naval Research: “Assessment of Relative Model Skill at Regional Scales in the NMME” (2015); PI: Benjamin Cash (George Mason University, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies)

Project chosen for funding by the DOE: “Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Extratropical Storm Track Activity over the U.S. using NMME Data” (2015); PI: Edmund Chang (Stony Brook University)

“Advancing Drought Monitoring and Prediction Using a Multi-Index Multivariate Framework” (2014); PI: AghaKouchak, Amir (University of California, Irvine); Co-PI: Mark Svoboda (National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln), Andy Wood (NCAR)

“Subseasonal Predictability of US Heat Waves/Droughts Associated with Planetary Wave Events” (2014); PI: Branstator, Grant (NCAR); Co-PIs: Joe Tribbia (NCAR), Haiyan Teng (NCAR)

“Objective monitoring and prediction system for drought classification over the continental United States” (2014); PI: Mo, Kingtse (NOAA/CPC); Co-PI: Dennis Lettenmaier (University of California, Los Angeles)

“Development of probabilistic drought intensification forecasts using the GOES-BASED Evaporative Stress Index” (2014); PI: Otkin, Jason (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Co-PI: Martha Anderson (USDA-ARS), Mark Svoboda (University of Nebraska-Lincoln), Chris Hain (University of Maryland), Xiwu Zhan (NOAA/NESDIS/STAR)

“Understanding changes in the regional variability of US Drought” (2014); PI: Weaver, Scott (NOAA/CPC)

“Improved probabilistic forecasts for the NMME seasonal forecast system” (2014); PI: Barnston, Tony (Columbia University/IRI); Co-PI:  Huug van den Dool (NOAA/CPC), Emily Becker (NOAA/CPC), Michael Tippett (Columbia University/IRI), Shuhua Li (Columbia University/IRI)

“Subseasonal NMME Forecasts: Skill, Predictability, and Multi-model Combination” (2014); PI: DelSole, Tim (George Mason University); Co-PI: Michael Tippett (Columbia University/IRI), Kathy Pegion (George Mason University)

“Bridging the gap in NOAA's extended and long range prediction systems through the development of new forecast products for weeks 3 and 4” (2014); PI: Xie, Shang-Ping (University of California, San Diego); Co-PI: Nat Johnson (University of Hawaii), Steven Feldstein (Penn State University), Michelle L'Heureux (NOAA/CPC), Stephen Baxter (NOAA/CPC)

“Developing an Optimum Multimodel ENSO Prediction” (2012); PI: Barnston, Anthony (IRI/Columbia University); Co-PI: Tippett, Michael (IRI/Columbia University); van den Dool, Huug (NOAA/CPC)

“Enhancing Seasonal Drought Prediction Capabilities for the US and the Globe Using the National Multi-Model Ensemble” (2012); PI: Lyon, Bradfield (IRI/Columbia University); Co-PI: Mo, Kingtse (NOAA/CPC); Barnston, Anthony (IRI/Columbia University)

“A US National Multi-Model Ensemble ISI Prediction System” (2012); PI: Kirtman, Benjamin (University of Miami/CIMAS); Co-PI: Kinter, James (COLA); Paolino, Dan (COLA); DeWitt, David (Columbia University); Tippett, Michael (IRI/Columbia University); Barnston, Anthony (IRI/Columbia University); Rosati, Anthony (NOAA/GFDL); Pegion, Kathy (CIRES/University of Colorado); Schubert, Siegfried (NASA Goddard); Reinecker, Michele (NASA Goddard); Suarez, Max (NASA Goddard); van den dool, Huug (NOAA/CPC); Mendez, Malaquias Pena (NOAA/EMC); Huang, Jin (NOAA/CPC); Weaver, Scott (NOAA/CPC); Tribbia, Joe (NCAR); Wood, Eric (Princeton University)

“Predictability of Atlantic Hurricane Activity by the NMME Coupled Models” (2012); PI: Barnston, Anthony (IRI/Columbia University); Co-PI: Tippett, Michael (IRI/Columbia University); Schemm, Jae-Kyung (NOAA/CPC)

“National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Prediction System: Phase-1 NMME Implementation Plan” (2011); PI: Huang, Jin (NOAA/CPC); Kirtman, Ben (University of Miami); Co-PI: Saha, S. (NOAA/EMC); White, G. (NOAA/EMC); van den Dool, Huug (NOAA/CPC); Kinter, Jim (COLA); Pegion, Kathy (NOAA/ESRL); Schubert, Siegfried (NASA Goddard); DeWitt, David (IRI/Columbia University); Tippett, Michael (IRI/Columbia University); Rosati, Tony (NOAA GFDL)




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