Program Charter For Climate Research and Modeling Program

March 28, 2008
Manager: V. Ramaswamy
Climate Goal Team Lead: Chester J. Koblinsky

Executive Summary
The overarching goal of the Climate Research and Modeling program is twofold: 1) to develop and improve the capability to make weekly, intraseasonal, seasonal, decadal, and centennialscale predictions of climate and (2) to understand changes in atmospheric composition, understand past and present climate change and make future climate projections from global to regional scales. This will enable regional and national managers to better plan for the impacts of climate variability and change and provide accurate, objective climate assessments and projections to support policy decisions.

An emerging focus of the capability is on the decadal time-scales, which will influence decision making processes. To advance decadal predictions, whose acceptance is dependent on confidence in understanding and modeling of the climate system, observations of the slowly varying components of the climate system need to be assimilated, and rapidly varying components such as radiative forcing agents like aerosols and ozone need to be calculated and accurately represented.

A key requirement for predictions and projections is models that embody sufficient realism in terms of process understanding, sufficient spatial resolution, and improved physics. To achieve its objectives, this program maintains and implements real-time climate monitoring data sets and the next-generation suite of operational climate products and assessments, incorporating improvements in climate models and forecast generation techniques. This program also develops estimates of changes in atmospheric composition (including atmospheric chemistry, carbon and other biogeochemical cycles) and future changes in climate forcing agents; and it maintains and develops leading edge Earth System models for the understanding of past climate change, interpretation of present climate events and trends, and projection of future climate change on global to regional scales. Activities under this program are spread across several line offices and NOAA laboratories, and also support and leverage competitively reviewed research.

The Climate Research and Modeling Program maintains capabilities that include (1) understanding climate processes, (2) Earth System modeling, prediction, and projection, leading to understanding climate variations, change, and predictions, and (3) climate analysis and attribution. These capabilities contribute to the Climate Service Development Program. Activities within these capabilities include (i) operational forecasts and assessments, (ii) research and development for predictive understanding of the climate system, (iii) making use of observations for advancing climate modeling and research, (iv) measurements and understanding of non-CO₂ radiative forcing agents, (v) improving estimates of climate forcings and understanding their causes, (vi) understanding and prediction of ozone layer recovery, (vii) projections of future climate change, (vii) analysis of the climate system, and (viii) attribution of past and present climate variations and change.

Download the full Climate Research and Modeling Program Charter Document (PDF)