Bridging the gap between short-term weather and long-term climate predictions has remained challenging for scientists, but public demand and promising research has focused NOAA's attention on this prediction problem. In an effort to further progress, researchers from universities, NOAA and other labs and centers will meet to highlight recent efforts to develop skillful predictions for the subseasonal to seasonal timescale. Talks will focus on research using data from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), a state-of-the-art seasonal prediction system combining forecasts from leading climate models. In addition, speakers will feature research using the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), a two-year project combining multiple global models to produce real-time experimental forecasts and forecasts for past dates at lead times of 3-4 weeks. Specific presentations will cover such topics as representing physical processes in models, prediction skill, and combining multiple model forecasts for optimal skill. The NMME/SubX Science Meeting is supported by the OAR CPO's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program and will be held September 13-15 at the National Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, Maryland.
Learn more: http://cola.gmu.edu/kpegion/nmmeworkshop2017/index.html
MISSION: The Climate and Fisheries Adaptation Program (CAFA) supports targeted research to promote sustainable management, adaptation and resilience of the nation’s valuable fish stocks and fisheries-dependent communities in a changing climate. By bringing together NOAA scientists with the academic community, other federal agency scientists, non-governmental organizations and key fisheries stakeholders, CAFA addresses priority needs for information and tools identified in the 2015 NOAA Fisheries Climate Science Strategy, Fisheries Regional Action Plans, U.S. National Climate Assessment, and other sources.
ISSUE: Healthy and productive fisheries are a significant component of the U.S. economy. Commercial and recreational marine fisheries generate over $200 billion in economic activity and support more than 1.8 million jobs annually. (FEUS 2016) Reliant and sustainable fisheries also support working waterfronts and coastal communities, provide opportunities for commerce, are tied to rich cultures, and help meet the growing demand for seafood across the U.S. and the world.
Climate variability and change are having increasing impacts on fish stocks, fisheries, and marine ecosystems in the U.S., and the impacts are expected to significantly increase with continued climate change. The changing climate and ocean conditions (e.g. warming oceans, extreme events, changing currents and stratification, coastal precipitation, coastal inundation, etc.) directly and indirectly affect marine ecosystems including the abundance, distribution, and productivity of fish stocks that support economically important fisheries. Sustainable fisheries management requires an improved understanding of how climate, fishing, and other stressors interact to affect fish stocks (including their habitats and prey), fisheries and fishing‐dependent communities.
PROGRAM HISTORY: The Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) Climate Program Office, and the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Office of Science and Technology launched a partnership in 2014 to advance understanding of climate‐related impacts on fish or other species that support economically important fisheries and fishing communities. The partnership originated through the former Coastal and Ocean Climate Applications (COCA) Program and in 2021 was renamed the Climate and Fisheries Adaptation (CAFA) Program as part of the OAR/CPO Adaptation Sciences Program.
Jennifer Dopkowski NOAA Research
Climate Program Office P: (301) 734-1261 E: jennifer.dopkowski@noaa.gov
Roger Griffis NOAA Fisheries Office of Science and Technology P: (301) 427-8134 E: roger.b.griffis@noaa.gov
Americans’ health, security and economic wellbeing are tied to climate and weather. Every day, we see communities grappling with environmental challenges due to unusual or extreme events related to climate and weather.