A key factor that determines how users respond to forecasts is the extent to which they trust the information. To help integrate this understanding into forecast valuation, a recent study proposes a framework to model trust in drought forecast information that captures how users’ trust forms and evolves over time and shows how trust influences users’ decisions. The study was funded by the Sectoral Applications Research Program's (SARP) Initiative called Coping with Drought in Support of the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and led by researchers from the University of Illinois-Urbana Champaign and the University of Virginia. Findings confirm that users’ trust in drought forecasts significantly influences the way the information is integrated with their prior knowledge.
The authors applied their proposed framework to a crop-allocation decision problem, where users receive a drought forecast for the crop season and decide the best allocation between two crops. The model assumes that the relationship between objective forecast accuracy and forecast value—and by extension, forecast use—is mediated through trust.
Applying the framework, the research team found that even if users are exposed to relatively accurate forecasts, they may not use it immediately because a minimum level of trust must be developed before forecasts are perceived to be valuable and integrated into decision making. Results also show that encouraging users to rely on poor forecasts can make them worse off, potentially deterring them from using forecasts in the future.
Read the study »
MISSION: The Climate and Fisheries Adaptation Program (CAFA) supports targeted research to promote sustainable management, adaptation and resilience of the nation’s valuable fish stocks and fisheries-dependent communities in a changing climate. By bringing together NOAA scientists with the academic community, other federal agency scientists, non-governmental organizations and key fisheries stakeholders, CAFA addresses priority needs for information and tools identified in the 2015 NOAA Fisheries Climate Science Strategy, Fisheries Regional Action Plans, U.S. National Climate Assessment, and other sources.
ISSUE: Healthy and productive fisheries are a significant component of the U.S. economy. Commercial and recreational marine fisheries generate over $200 billion in economic activity and support more than 1.8 million jobs annually. (FEUS 2016) Reliant and sustainable fisheries also support working waterfronts and coastal communities, provide opportunities for commerce, are tied to rich cultures, and help meet the growing demand for seafood across the U.S. and the world.
Climate variability and change are having increasing impacts on fish stocks, fisheries, and marine ecosystems in the U.S., and the impacts are expected to significantly increase with continued climate change. The changing climate and ocean conditions (e.g. warming oceans, extreme events, changing currents and stratification, coastal precipitation, coastal inundation, etc.) directly and indirectly affect marine ecosystems including the abundance, distribution, and productivity of fish stocks that support economically important fisheries. Sustainable fisheries management requires an improved understanding of how climate, fishing, and other stressors interact to affect fish stocks (including their habitats and prey), fisheries and fishing‐dependent communities.
PROGRAM HISTORY: The Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) Climate Program Office, and the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Office of Science and Technology launched a partnership in 2014 to advance understanding of climate‐related impacts on fish or other species that support economically important fisheries and fishing communities. The partnership originated through the former Coastal and Ocean Climate Applications (COCA) Program and in 2021 was renamed the Climate and Fisheries Adaptation (CAFA) Program as part of the OAR/CPO Adaptation Sciences Program.
Jennifer Dopkowski NOAA Research
Climate Program Office P: (301) 734-1261 E: jennifer.dopkowski@noaa.gov
Roger Griffis NOAA Fisheries Office of Science and Technology P: (301) 427-8134 E: roger.b.griffis@noaa.gov
Americans’ health, security and economic wellbeing are tied to climate and weather. Every day, we see communities grappling with environmental challenges due to unusual or extreme events related to climate and weather.