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Two new approaches to extended-range severe thunderstorm forecasts from CFSv2

  • 1 December 2015
Two new approaches to extended-range severe thunderstorm forecasts from CFSv2
Severe weather activity can devastate communities and businesses, cause loss of life and property, and impact valuable infrastructure and natural resources. The number and severity of extreme weather and climate events in the U.S. has increased since 1980, and is projected to continue increasing. Currently, there are no severe thunderstorm forecasts beyond eight days produced by the operational community; however, modes of climate variability on timescales from weeks to months may influence severe weather activity and could be used to extend severe weather forecasts. Extended-range forecasts using coupled models could help reduce community vulnerability and improve resilience to extreme events by providing advanced warning for better preparedness. 

A study by Gregory Carbin (NOAA Storm Prediction Center), Michael Tippett (Columbia University), Samuel Lillo (University of Oklahoma), and Harold Brooks (NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory), funded by CPO’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections program, introduces two new approaches for producing long-range severe thunderstorm predictions. The two approaches include: charting CFSv2 run-to-run consistency of the areal extent of severe thunderstorm environments using grid counts of the Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP); and using a run-cumulative time-averaging technique of SCP grid counts. These real-time products are scheduled to be implemented, with future work planned to expand these methods to include other forecast models and variables. The product recently produced a 9-day-lead warning of the severe outbreak on November 16th and 17th. 


The experimental tool is available at the following link: http://wxvu.net/spc/cfs_scp/ Access the paper here: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00136.1 

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